UK REGO prices dropped 45% between August and November 2024, as the market responded to significant volumes of renewable capacity being awarded in this year’s AR6 CfD auction. The results were announced in early September and likely contributed to the downward trend in price over the early winter period.
Renewable Exchange’s REGO Forward Curve shows that prices dropped over 20% in a single day in October, a recent REGO auction highlighting the illiquidity in the market at this time. Reserve prices at the auction, held on Thursday 17th October, were set significantly lower than recently traded levels. On Friday 18th October, we saw a dramatic 21% drop in CP23 Wind Solar Hydro (WSH) REGO prices.
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For weekly REGO prices, register your interest now for the REGO Forward Curve.
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Despite the clear recent volatility, on a broader scale, it seems REGO prices have stabilised slightly after a peak of over £20 per certificate in October 2023. This shift suggests a more stable energy market, benefitting the end consumer as the green tariffs are supplied at more competitive rates, while still offering an additional source of revenue for generators.
As prices have dropped, the price of WSH REGOs has also converged towards the price of their non-WSH counterparts. The difference between these so-called ‘green’ and ‘grey’ REGOS dropped by 46% since mid-August. As market participants complete their hedging activities throughout CP23, it appears those who value WSH REGOs are running longer positions, thus reducing the price delta to fuelled ‘grey’ REGOs. Buyers who only need to meet the OFGEM definition of renewable source electricity can procure REGOs from any source to meet their requirements.
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