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Power Market Update – May 2020

May 22 2020

Britain has now been coal free for over a month – the first time since the industrial revolution! Although this is largely the result of the continued drop in demand and high generation of renewables this is a massive step towards the UK’s ambitions of removing coal generation by 2025.

Negative day ahead index pricing is becoming increasingly frequent. This occurred again on the weekend of the 9th & 10th of May due to high wind and PV production which also caused National Grid to use their Optional Downward Flexibility Management service, cutting embedded generation between 4am & 7am on the 10th of May.

There was a similar occurrence early this morning (22/5/2020) as system sell pricing reached lows of -£70/MWh due to high winds.

Day ahead pricing is currently negative for 17 hours tomorrow (23/5/2020), averaging at -£10.37/MWh minus the day vs yesterday’s average of £11.58/MWh. Linked to high wind and solar generation plus weak demand.

The first 3 months of 2020 saw 40% of the UKs energy produced by renewables.

Winter 21 is currently trading higher than Winter 20, at £45.50/MWh. Forward market picking up slightly this week after the drop at the beginning of the month, hopefully it continues trending upwards.

See above for a PPA valuation of a 500kW wind asset from the Renewable Exchange Marketplace forecasting tool since 22nd May 2019.

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